科研动态期刊摘要
[评论] 21世纪全球健康威胁并非你所想
The Lancet · 2026-10-16 12:09
摘要
由 Christopher J L Murray 及其同事撰写的《柳叶刀》21世纪全球健康威胁委员会报告，使用基于预期累积可干预伤残调整生命年（DALYs）的预测，来量化和比较 2025 年至 2100 年的威胁。1 该委员会的意图是使政府具备工具，以作出基于“系统、可重复的风险评估和应急准备规划”而非“短期主义和地方主义”的降低风险的明智长期决策。
English
[Comment] 21st century global threats to health are not what you think
The Lancet Commission on 21st century global threats to health's report by Christopher J L Murray and colleagues uses forecasts based on expected cumulative amenable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to quantify and compare threats from 2025 to 2100.1 The Commission's intent is to equip governments with the tools to make smart long-term decisions that reduce risk based on “systematic, repeatable risk assessment and preparedness planning” as opposed to “short-termism and localism”.